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It’s an early birthday current for Smith, who turns 29 Thursday and has considerably quietly been the most effective catchers within the recreation in recent times. Courting again to his 2019 debut via the tip of 2023, he hit 91 house runs and drew walks in 10.9% of his plate appearances. His .261/.357/.483 batting line coming into the 2024 season interprets to a 128 wRC+. Amongst certified catchers over that span, solely Mitch Garver and Adley Rutschman had a better wRC+. Every of these two had been at 130 however in precisely half as many plate appearances.
His glovework has additionally acquired sturdy grades, together with 26 Defensive Runs Saved up to now in his profession. Statcast considers him to have been roughly league common by way of blocking and controlling the operating recreation. It’s much less enthused about his framing however FanGraphs considers him to be proper round par in that division, whereas Baseball Prospectus considers him to be properly above common. His 15.8 wins above substitute from FanGraphs for the reason that begin of 2019 are second amongst main catchers, behind solely J.T. Realmuto.
Smith was going into his second of three arbitration seasons. He made $5.25M final yr and prevented arbitration again in January by agreeing to a wage of $8.55M for 2024. He would have been eligible for an additional go at arbitration in 2025 earlier than qualifying without cost company after his age-30 season, however the Dodgers have locked him up as a substitute.
The construction of the contract stands out as uncommon, as a ten-year deal for a catcher is unprecedented. Per MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, which has knowledge going again to the 2009-10 offseason, no backstop has ever signed a deal longer than eight years. Every of Joe Mauer, Buster Posey and Keibert Ruiz signed eight-year extensions, the longest offers for catchers previously decade-plus.
Catchers usually expertise quite a lot of put on and tear as a result of rigors of the place, which might make it tough to attain longevity within the place. When it comes to offers three years or longer, the oldest age for the participant’s closing season was 37, which applies to the three-year deal Carlos Ruiz signed with the Phillies again in 2013 and an extension Yadier Molina signed with the Cardinals. Russell Martin’s five-year take care of the Blue Jays went into his age-36 season, the oldest age for the ultimate season of any deal longer than three years for a catcher.
The Dodgers have dedicated to Smith for a long run than any of these offers and later into his profession. However in doing so, it appears they had been in a position to compromise by way of the common annual worth and aggressive steadiness tax hit, which relies on AAV. Smith’s AAV will likely be simply $14M earlier than accounting for deferrals, which decrease the present-day worth of the deal and the AAV as properly. Mauer bought a assure of $184M and a $23M AAV again in 2010. Posey bought $166.5M and a $20.8M AAV in 2023. Martin’s five-year deal got here with an $82M assure and $16.4M AAV again in 2014.
That’s not to recommend that Smith is nearly as good as these gamers, merely to level out that the assure isn’t as unprecedented because the size. Whereas the 10-year span is a brand new report for catchers, there are 12 offers with increased AAVs listed on the Contract Tracker. Smith may even transfer down a couple of pegs if the deferrals are in depth sufficient to considerably knock down the AAV.
Smith was probably taking a look at one shot at a life-changing deal when he hit free company after 2025, however he’ll lock up that cash now as a substitute of ready. Maybe he’s sacrificing some future incomes energy however he now foregoes any danger of a big damage slicing into these plans. The Dodgers get to maintain a catcher who has established himself as a key piece of the roster whereas tamping down the posh tax hit. The size of the deal will hold it on the books for a very long time however the modest wage shouldn’t be an albatross for a high-spending membership just like the Dodgers.
In the long term, there’ll inevitably be questions that should be answered in regards to the domino results of this deal. Smith might should be moved from behind the plate to a delegated hitter position over time however the presence of Shohei Ohtani will forestall Smith from getting any form of common position within the DH slot. The Dodgers even have three catching prospects who’re thought of to be prime 100 skills in Diego Cartaya, Dalton Dashing and Thayron Liranzo. As these gamers method the Majors, the membership may very well be going through a little bit of a logjam, although that will be a great downside to have and will enable the Dodgers to bolster different areas of the roster through commerce.
For at this time, it’s a pleasant little bit of safety for each the participant and the membership, cementing a relationship that had a ticking clock with lower than two years remaining.
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