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2:00
: Oh let’s chat
2:00
: Did you see any of Jared Jones’ debut? I nonetheless can’t consider how good he appeared. So many swings and misses
2:01
: Let’s simply amble on over to the FanGraphs slack and see what essentially the most not too long ago posted message is
2:01
: Ben Clemens 10:58 AM‘let’s all get irresponsibly enthusiastic about jared jones’ is prepared for tomorrow @Matt Martell
2:01
: Oh hey, take a look at that
2:01
: Ideas on who wins a struggle between McNeil and Hoskins? I’m guessing McNeil fights soiled!
2:01
: Yeah Rhys is a teddy bear, I wouldn’t mess with Jeff
2:01
: Is Kutter Crawford going to carry off Nick Pivetta for AL Cy Younger? Or will the voters go together with Garrett Whitlock? May additionally see Bello making a darkish horse run…
2:02
: I’m truthfully fairly enthusiastic about Pivetta, and I feel Crawford is actually attention-grabbing
2:02
: I’m…. much less offered on Whitlock
2:02
: I see that the Pattern Measurement and Stabilization Factors analysis each right here and at BaseballProspectus don’t embody plate self-discipline metrics. Have you learnt of any work that exhibits when issues like O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, O-Swing%, SwStr%, and so on. turn out to be “sticky”?
2:03
: are we fearful about Max Fried already? Or simply early season chaos
2:03
: No however that appears like one thing I ought to do
2:03
: and no, I’m not
2:03
: sorry, simply inadvertently clicked the second query earlier than answering the primary
2:04
: What’s for lunch?
2:04
: Burmese leftovers
2:04
: We have been actually drained yesterday after a weekend of unbelievable snowboarding, so we ordered in and obtained slihgtly an excessive amount of meals
2:04
: Has the primary weekend of play in any respect considerably altered your opinion of any staff (both positively or negatively)?
2:05
: Truthfully, the Pirates have moved up in my estimation by a bit and that’s just about it
2:05
: Am I a superb promote excessive proper now? Or can this be sustained whereas pitching in Cinci half my begins
2:05
: Sort of relies upon what the worth is, proper?
2:05
: Like, no, a 0 ERA and a pair of.30 FIP can’t be sustained
2:06
: however Montas was a pleasant starter till he obtained damage in NY, and ‘good starter’ is squarely inside the attainable outcomes for him once more
2:07
: if somebody’s providing you ace degree returns, positive. when you’re attempting to ‘promote excessive’ as like ever so barely increased than his ADP, I’d most likely maintain off
2:07
: Who amongst your folks do I thank for Tyler O’Neill?
2:07
: thank all of Canada
2:07
: How do you’re feeling about Royce Lewis now (after the harm)
2:07
: Will Betts worth offensively tank if he performs extra ss
2:07
: The early returns don’t look that means, huh?
2:08
: I don’t assume that’s a straightforward query to reply in any respect, principally. I don’t understand how his physique will react to taking part in a lot shortstop, or how the Dodgers will attempt to get him relaxation
2:08
: however thus far he’s one of the best hitter in baseball
2:08
: 0 period is sustainable… if he will get to maintain pitching in opposition to the Nationals!
2:08
: MARY. KATE. OLSEN.
2:08
: New response simply dropped
2:08
: Overreaction alert, however aren’t the Mariners the identical staff yearly? Good pitching however genuinely poor offense? And so they didn’t get meaningfully higher over the offseason (as a result of they didn’t attempt to). Why do folks maintain falling for his or her BS? They’re not a top-tier staff.
2:08
: Certain, however that’s a fairly good staff and their pitching appears particularly good this yr
2:08
: I really assume they did get a little bit higher this offseason
2:09
: Much less higher than they might have in the event that they tried more durable, clearly
2:09
: Solely a idiot would predict a Key Hayes breakout, proper?
2:09
: as somebody who yearly predicts a Hayes breakout, I’m undecided if I’m being slandered right here 
2:10
: I’d be a little bit extra excited if he weren’t doing it with BABIP and grounders
2:11
: That’s at all times the a part of the method that appears the weakest, and he’s nonetheless placing his hardest contact on the bottom. However I like that his batting eye has appeared good early
2:11
: Cowser, however not as a result of I don’t like Canzone
2:12
: I feel they’re each good choices
2:12
: Which younger AL Central arm excites you essentially the most? (pondering Mize, Ober, Olson, Bibee, Ragans)
2:12
: And I’d have Skubal solely a hair behind him
2:12
: Elias made an incredible deal to get Burnes however when is he going to be pressured to commerce a few of his Norfolk mashers? The entire high prospects are tearing the duvet off the ball. Is he simply afraid to commerce the incorrect one?
2:13
: I feel that it’s a extremely attention-grabbing query, however I’ve to say, I’ve preferred how he dealt with this offseason. Getting somebody like Burnes was a should, and he did it by spending prospects with out going fully nuts
2:13
: I don’t see an apparent commerce candidate for them in the meanwhile, I’m positive that issues will clear up because the yr rolls alongside
2:13
: And the factor is, if all these hitters pan out, what an exquisite downside to have. If some don’t, nicely, name up those who’re good
2:13
: Are Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz indicators of a brand new super-athlete arriving in baseball or are they only two unicorns who’ve similarities?
2:14
: Just a little little bit of each, I feel
2:14
: However extra in direction of the unicorn aspect
2:14
: what makes you extra bullish on the pirates? they simply might’ve dropped two, and that i nonetheless don’t assume the rotation is that nice. jones will most likely have his justifiable share of rookie struggles and keller didn’t encourage a ton of confidence that he really is the 2023 first half man we noticed
2:15
: Jones appeared actually good, and positive, he’ll probalby have some struggles, however I assumed that earlier than his begin too
2:15
: Cruz has appeared good and wholesome
2:16
: It’s exhausting to have a massively modified opinion after a number of video games, and yeah, my opinion hasn’t modified a ton, however ‘what if jared jones is ace-ish instantly’ undoubtedly adjustments expecdtations a little bit
2:16
: Jordan Hicks as a starter: success or enormous success????? One recreation is an efficient pattern measurement proper
2:16
: Haha sure, let’s simply name it there
2:16
: Truthfully what an incredible success, I agree with you
2:17
: Will it work in the long term? I’m nonetheless skeptical. However I didn’t actually assume it might work within the quick run, both, so possibly don’t take my opinion on this specific pitching conversion as gospel
2:17
: additionally simply curious – what % of chat questions do you sometimes get round to answering
2:17
: I dunno, 30%?
2:17
: 40%? There are such a lot of good quesetions
2:17
: Any center relievers you’ll suggest. not for saves, however for ratio assist and Ks? thanks.
2:17
: I are inclined to shuffle by means of Guardians for ratio assist
2:18
: Bizarre as that sounds, they appear to churn out good center relievers
2:19
: like, Stephan appears fairly legit. Nick Sandlin is en fuego to begin the yr
2:19
: Scott Barlow feels just like the type of man I belief extra in cleveland than elsewhere
2:19
: What authentic cause do you assume the Orioles have for holding Jackson Holliday in AAA to begin the season? Absolutely the Orioles would somewhat have Holliday taking part in 2B/SS over Westburg and Mateo
2:20
: It is a query I’m nonetheless pondering fairly a bit, and I hope to have a response for you in article kind later this week
2:20
: It’s a extremely complicated query, as a result of I don’t assume the service time manipulation angle advantages them that a lot given the place they’re in
2:20
: Paxton is beginning for the Dodgers right now. Do you assume he’s the subsequent pitcher the Dodgers workers helps get away ?
2:20
: I feel it’s only a well being factor with Paxton, so it’s exhausting to say
2:21
: how completely different is Erick Fedde now vs. final time he was in MLB?
2:22
: He’s completely different, little question. I feel that having an out pitch is transformative for him
2:23
: He’s at all times been in a position to throw strikes and fill innings, however he walked too many batters and didn’t strike out sufficient as a result of he simply couldn’t finish at-bats when he was forward
2:23
: I feel that if his sweeper is even first rate — and it appears good to me — that change is huge
2:23
: Clearly I’m fairly excessive on him, he was one among my daring takes in my prediction article
2:23
: And nothing about his first begin modified my opinion all that a lot, I’m hardly shocked that he may need house run points however I just like the strikeout stuff and the truth that his walks are declining in consequence can also be nice
2:24
: AL Cy is clearly going to Kevin Gausman. It’s his time.
2:24
: It could be superb if he had an incredible season with ERA decrease than FIP to get the award, as a result of I really feel like he’s been a FIP darling in Toronto
2:24
: Possibilities the Yankees go 162-0? They’re off to an honest begin
2:24
: haha it’s 0; however because it’s April Fools I’ll say 50%
2:24
: it occurs or it doesn’t
2:25
: Was elder’s first half of the 2023 season only a fluke
2:25
: *simply* a fluke? no
2:25
: I feel there are actual issues to love about him
2:25
: I’m prepared to consider that he can induce weak contact higher than your common main leaguer
2:26
: however I feel that his lack of stuff goes to carry him again
2:26
: When the Cubs hand over on Morel at 3B (to look at him play protection for any size of time is to comprehend he’s a extremely athletic DH), will there by anyplace to show apart from the trio of Nick Madrigal/Knowledge/Mastro?
2:26
: Morel wanting tough at third. Are the Cubs going to remorse not signing Chapman, particularly given how his worth fell?
2:26
: Oh sorry, didn’t understand these have been each from the identical particular person
2:26
: However Morel will not be a 3rd baseman
2:27
: the Cubs knew this, they have been working lineups final yr with him at second and little Nick Madrigal at third
2:27
: I don’t know why they tried it once more however he simply can’t play third nicely
2:27
: I don’t hate Madrigal/Knowledge/Mastrobuoni in its place, although. I’m shocked to say that I like Madrigal’s protection a good quantity there regardless of his arm, and he makes for an attention-grabbing energy/contact platoon with Knowledge
2:28
: I feel you may get a way for pitchers who Knowledge is gonna battle with, guys who’ve strikeout stuff principally, and bounce these two round accordingly
2:28
: I don’t assume they’re going to remorse lacking out on Chapman, however nicely, I’ve at all times been decrease than consensus on Chapman
2:28
: who finally ends up being extra worthwhile to the Blue Jays this yr: Alex Manoah or Joey Votto?
2:28
: There’s no reply right here I’d be unhappy about apart from ‘neither’, although
2:28
: I’m rooting for each
2:29
: Will soroka ever determine it out once more
2:29
: Ugh, I hope so
2:29
: Zero strikeouts in 5 innings is NOT an encouraging signal
2:29
: Who has extra WAR over the rest of their contract? Strasburg (probably 0) or Baez (probably unfavorable)?
2:29
: I’ll take Baez for positive, haha
2:29
: I imply, he was completely atrocious final yr and value 0.8 WAR
2:30
: I’m in a each day Choose ’em competitors with the caveat that if the sport I choose that day (picks due at 11am est) isn’t accomplished it nonetheless counts as a win for me. Is there a great way to lookup recreation cancellations and delays?
2:30
: I really don’t know
2:30
: Sorry for a non-answer right here, however I figured I’d at the very least publish it so that you wouldn’t simply maintain questioning
2:30
: Freddy Peralta was very robust throughout the 2nd half of final season and clearly spectacular on Opening Day. Are you shopping for that he’s taking a significant step ahead?
2:30
: ehhhh…. no, I feel he’s going to proceed being superb although
2:31
: so I feel it is determined by what you got here in pondering
2:31
: I used to be pondering that the White Sox and the A’s have been going to battle it out to see who received’t attain 50 wins however do you assume the Rockies, within the now very powerful NL West, may be even worse?
2:31
: I don’t assume the A’s are THAT unhealthy
2:31
: I do assume the White Sox may be. And yeah, the Rockies are a catastrophe. I feel Rockies/White Sox would be the race to the underside this yr
2:32
: Stephan had TJS btw.
2:32
: You already know, I knew this, and I don’t know why I discussed him within the current tense, however he was an incredible ratio helper for the lats two years
2:33
: and he’s a superb exmaple of how they do an incredible job working with relievers to emphasise their strengths
2:33
: however yeah, he’s out! don’t choose him up
2:33
: The rationale for holding Holliday down is clearly service time manipulation.
2:33
: if that’s the case, I feel the Orioles are making a poor determination
2:33
: however yeah, I do assume you may be proper
2:33
: Nolan Arenado is taking half swings and might solely go oppo—cooked? injured? going via it?
2:33
: Injured I feel, and bordering on going by means of it
2:34
: however yeah I agree with you that it’s a VERY good barometer
2:34
: he’s a pull solely man
2:34
: when he’s going oppo, one thing will not be proper
2:34
: Are the Cubs completely toasted with out Steele for some time now?
2:34
: I imply, clearly I’d choose to have Steele
2:34
: what a goofy harm, by the best way
2:35
: However I feel that their offense is deep and rounded sufficient that they’ll rating a variety of runs and win video games even after they don’t have superb beginning
2:35
: additionally, between Horton and Brown, they’ve some good reinforcements arising
2:35
: When a groups playoff share goes up or down after a 3-0 or 0-3 begin how a lot it the projection adjusting the groups assumed power of schedule verse merely they now have solely 159 video games left and a multi recreation lead/deficit?
2:36
: it’s like .5% adjustments in expectation, 99.5% the deficit
2:36
: it simply actually issues!
2:36
: and in the meantime, except there’s an injjury, it’s exhausting to be taught that a lot that ought to change your long-term view of a participant or staff in three video games
2:36
: Shohei Ohtani is beginning at DH for the Dodgers right now. Do you assume he’s the subsequent participant the Dodgers workers helps get away ?
2:36
:
2:37
: Can we take a second to mourn the for the truth that the e book has virtually definitely closed on Joey Bart doing a BART advert?
2:37
: It’s so sd
2:38
: Everybody hoped for that joke for years
2:38
: George Kirby or Luis Castillo in fantasy
2:38
: I’m a dummy however gimme Kirby
2:38
: how large an indictment on Nats participant dev if 1 yr of KBO made Fedde a playable SP
2:38
: like, SO large
2:39
: I most likely can’t emphasize this sufficient
2:39
: Humorous sufficient it was really 2 completely different David’s asking Morel can’t play 3B questions at the very same time (not joking).
2:39
: Did you catch Bobby Miller’s begin? He appeared like a man who thought of final yr and stated, “what if i can persistently find my pitches no matter depend or batter” and made me surprise if he finally ends up as essentially the most worthwhile starter by the top of the season
2:39
: I did, and he appears nice
2:39
: I’m an enormous Miller backer and I really feel vindicated
2:39
: Why is Jordan Walker hitting seventh within the StL lineup?
2:40
: The Altuve-Yordan-Tucker-Bregman ordering didnt fairly pan out. Small Pattern, however ideas on optimum 1-4 ordering? and any ideas on Mccormick?
2:40
: Fast batting order dialogue
2:41
: Walker: I dunno, however I don’t assume it’s an enormous deal both means, I’d choose him someplace in 1-6 however they’ve a bunch of fairly good hitters
2:41
: I like what they’re doing with Scott and Winn, too
2:41
: Astros: I imply…. optimum hardly issues with these dudes, I’m effective with the best way they’ve it
2:41
: like, simply put the 4 nice hitters 1-4, simple peasy
2:41
: and I like McCormick loads, assume he’s a legit common
2:42
: No your not. Kirby is the products. On Friday he walked 2, and threw a wild pitch, unbelievable, within the 1st then closed the door fully
2:42
: I feel it’s type of outrageous that Kirby had extra Cy Younger votes than another AL pitcher in our season prediction publish
2:42
: which type of worries me? however I used to be one among them, sooooo
2:43
: Is Austin Wells a sneaky RoY candidate? His protection appears strong and if Vacation is stored down for some time he doesn’t actually have a ton of competitors within the AL (outdoors of Langford).
2:43
: Don’t overlook Evan Carter, Colt Keith, Junior Caminero, and so on.
2:44
: like possibly he’s undervalued however there are a variety of good rookies within the AL
2:44
: lol morel doing nothing to show the haters incorrect at 3b
2:44
: That’s one technique to put it, haha
2:44
: I don’t assume I’m ever going to get used to seeing Craig Counsell in a Cubs uniform. It simply feels incorrect on so many ranges
2:44
: I’ll get used to it I’m positive
2:44
: but it surely feels VERY unusual
2:45
: Cardinals current historical past of dealing with participant accidents has been…unhealthy
2:45
: Yeah this Edman scenario is terrible
2:45
: Oh man Acuna simply took an ungainly lunge into first attempting to beat out a double play and my coronary heart skipped a beat
2:46
: appears like he’s fully effective although
2:46
: Bibee + Keller an overpay for Gilbert in a 16 staff dynasty? Bibee had higher numbers than Gilbert final yr. I imply if it was Kirby completely different story….
2:46
: i feel it’s affordable, I don’t assume Keller has a ton of worth
2:46
: Similar to, there are a variety of guys who can put up Kelleresque stats
2:47
: His additional worth is his consistency and availability, and I’m simply not as curious about that in fantasy
2:47
: re: AL ROY — if ceddanne rafaela retains an obp over .300 he’s going to place up a 4war season. energy/pace/protection are legit, and he’s going to have spotlight performs out the wazoo. guess him earlier than the traces drop much more
2:47
: One other good name there
2:47
: May Busch’s protection at third be any worse than Morel’s? I feel he obtained some reps there in ST.
2:47
: I imply, might it’s? I assume so. Nick Castellanos performed third base as soon as
2:47
: and it was as unhealthy as you may think
2:48
: Will it’s? I feel Busch might be about as more likely to succeed on the market as Morel is. Not understanding what’s going to occur is an upside right here. We already nkow that Morel is unlikely to determine it out
2:48
: Why is Tony Kemp in Baltimore as an alternative of
2:48
: Adam Frazier sat on the bench in order that Tony Kemp might…. additionally sit on the bench
2:49
: With Leclerc struggling is Robertson the subsequent man up and is he a superb pickup?
2:49
: Yeah i feel he’s
2:49
: love the chance set there
2:49
: Having a look on the projected standings, is the NL Central race essentially the most attention-grabbing division to look at? Each staff is between 25-40% to make the playoffs.
2:49
: there aren’t any actually terrible groups there this yr
2:49
: one among solely two divisions the place I feel you possibly can say that (ALE)
2:49
: and that’s actually enjoyable
2:50
: The Pirates appear much more attention-grabbing with Jones within the combine…do they are saying the heck with it, and name Skenes up prior to later? That two-headed monster will undoubtedly put seats within the stands, they usually would possibly make the central division tremendous aggressive.
2:50
: I feel they may
2:50
: I’d be a really aggressive GM on strikes like that, in fact, so you possibly can’t take what I’m saying as gospel
2:51
: However this staff is younger and thrilling and the truth that they have been prepared to begin Jones within the majors says that they’re not sluggish rolling for the sake of sluggish rolling
2:51
: That was really a extremely spectacular begin
2:51
: if that is what the Yankees get out of Stroman, it may be the signing of the offseason
2:52
: similar to, not a lot cash and for a really strong starter
2:52
: Purely stats and analytics based mostly query right here: did Juan Soto’s affect on the lineup get the Yankees DAWGx ranges again to a spot the place you possibly can be ok with them taking the division over the upstart Orioles
2:52
: you recognize, I haven’t checked out DAWGx, however I did take a look at their xThatGuyJustKnowsHowToPlay
2:52
: it’s gone means up
2:53
: Wow Yoan Moncada simply stretched a triple right into a double, that’s not an incredible look this early within the season
2:54
: Hey there Matt, very long time no yell
2:54
: Yellow mangos are in season. So good!
2:54
: I think about it might be too small a pattern measurement, however is there a bonus (in direction of pitcher or batter) on the finish of very lengthy at bats (>= 10 pitches, say)?
2:54
: I used to be wanting round for an previous article that I examine this
2:54
: I wish to say Ben Lindbergh, however possibly so way back that it was at Grantland and never the ringer
2:54
: the reply was sure
2:55
: Hey Ben – who do you assume has one of the best likelihood to hit a HR within the Giants v Dodgers recreation?
2:55
: Haha, simply in your personal leisure and never any type of wagering cause I’m positive, however uh…. presumably it’s Mookie?
2:56
: 12-team class H2H. Drop Maikel Garcia for Colt Keith? I have already got Volpe and Scott for SB’s
2:56
: I imply, that’s your worst participant? Good!
2:56
: I’m kinda curious about Garcia’s energy leap, I’d HATE to drop him proper now
2:57
: With all of the discuss how the Cruzes are large for shortstops and possibly too large, why are folks ignoring Gunnar Henderson who can also be large and might play a imply shortstop (plus additionally..you recognize… Cal). Possibly being large isn’t unhealthy at SS?
2:57
: Oneil Cruz is FIVE INCHES taller than Gunnar
2:58
: there’s a distinction between large shortstops (that’s occurred, we like em, Seager and so on) and small forwards
2:58
: Who wants Steele when you have got Imanaga anyway?
2:58
: I’m actually excessive on Imanaga, have him in fantasy and completely purchase the ZiPS juice
2:58
: Crimson Sox appeared attention-grabbing in opposition to the Mariners. Can they pitch a little bit bit? Possibly some potential to shock?
2:58
: I actually really feel just like the Crimson Sox are one ace in need of having a wonderful pitching workers
2:59
: I feel that a variety of groups whose pitching I don’t like are MANY pitchers in need of a wonderful workers
2:59
: the Sox seem to be if they might have one true anchor, they’ve a ton of excellent arms who can maintain down the remaining
2:59
: Andrew Bailey had all three of Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock throwing some kind of slider over 50% of the time this weekend. Whereas the early outcomes have been nice, do you have got a what implications that will have on sturdiness? The standard knowledge is breaking balls pressure arms, however current analysis appears responsible velocity extra
2:59
: Yeah, I’m not overly fearful about injuiries any greater than I at all times am
3:00
: though the tremendous exhausting sliders are unquestionably very exhausting on arms
3:00
: like per unit velocity, breaking balls are more durable in your arm than fastballs, the speed is what makes the fastballs worse
3:00
: How are the Mets’ playoff hopes going to be affected by the Megilah harm?
3:00
: yeah it hurts. when your blah again finish guys are alreayd down to begin, each harm simply weighs extra
3:00
: Has anybody not too long ago accomplished any extra detailed evaluation on the worth managers present? I’m curious if the Cubs are on the entrance fringe of a brand new wave of adjustments in MLB with Counsell. It does seem to be a superb supervisor can present a few wins distinction which is deserving of more cash than a mediocre RP.
3:00
: I haven’t seen any in fairly some time
3:01
: I feel that it’s principally a certainty that managers present worth when it comes to holding gamers engaged and managing workloads than something they do with in-game selections, and that continues to be frustratingly exhausting to measure
3:03
: You get an opportunity to see Bryan Hudson throw three scoreless for the Brewers? Consider I noticed someplace that his launch level is so excessive it’s virtually off the plot
3:03
: I didn’t however now I’m gonna go attempt to look
3:03
: Is MLB actually benefiting from this take care of Apple+? Is Apple? I’d guess a really excessive % of followers should not subscribing simply to look at the occasional recreation. Would you agree this setup sucks for the followers?
3:03
: I feel Apple is benefiting
3:03
: I feel they’re benefiting much less as time goes on, and that possibly the deal received’t proceed perpetually
3:04
: notably now that they’re extra in on MLS than baseball
3:04
: I assumed that utilizing it as promoting was actually sensible, I do know a number of individuals who obtained the free apple television trial to look at some video games and preferred the trailers for brand new exhibits sufficient that they stored it
3:04
: It’s unclear to me how a lot worth it has as a going concern somewhat than promoting, although
3:05
: Good to see Kris Bryant obtained a superb ovation at Wrigley right now. Are you able to consider anybody else that has had as weird of a profession arc? Was the league MVP, face of the Cubs after 2016, and possibly one of the best non-Trout participant for a number of years however then light into full irrelevancy so rapidly it’s virtually jarring.
3:05
: Yeah it’s actually superb
3:05
: Early ideas on Jung Hoo Lee? I feel he had at the very least 4 barrels, and swung and missed twice in 70-80 pitches to him in opposition to the Padres.
3:05
: He appears higher than I anticipated
3:05
: I’m very excited to catch a variety of his video games hthis yr
3:05
: Re: Managers worth. Placing folks in the appropriate place to succeed is the managers job, however stated people failing to really succeed has nothing to do with the supervisor. But the managers are held accountable
3:05
: Proper, that’s why it’s so exhausting to measure
3:05
: Okay, I’ll maintain onto Maikel. What about dropping Eddie Julien for C Keith?
3:06
: Choose 3 – Whitlock at LAA, Javier Vs Toronto, JJones Vs Balt, King at SF, Pepiot Vs Tex AND at Col
3:06
: At present in Ben Picks Issues:
3:06
: Whitlock, Javier, King
3:06
: pepiot with one of many worst possible two begin units, oof
3:07
: Is there a bell curve of harm correlation? E.g. people who miss video games to main harm/minor harm are much less more likely to have correlative harm developments sooner or later than these with fixed medium degree accidents (frequent tissue and muscle pulls). Our harm susceptible associates Royce Lewis and ILoy Jimenez have proven that the muscle and tendon harm susceptible have a tendency to stay as such. [I’m currently wrapping Byron Buxton in bubble wrap as we speak. Jazz Chishom is in the queue next.]
3:07
: I perceive your query possibly 60%, however I’m gonna say sure, completely different accidents are in a different way predictive
3:07
: I used to be pondering the opposite day simply what number of actually, actually nice writers have been a part of Grantland, and the way a lot I’d take pleasure in a 30 for 30 on that experiment
3:08
: Like, each time I’d examine some new factor I didn’t beforehand care about, the particular person writing about it might be among the best within the recreation at it
3:08
: Eh, I feel I’d do it then. I do like Keith fairly a bit. However take a look at all these good choices!
3:08
: Which happens first: a staff goes 162-0 or the warmth loss of life of the Universe?
3:09
: Warmth loss of life, however that’s as a result of baseball isn’t going to exist in perpetuity
3:09
: solely been 4 (not tremendous spectacular) outs however im satisfied
Dakota hudson is one of the best pitcher within the NL west
3:09
: oh buddy, I’m so sorry for you for the curler coaster you’re going to undergo as a fan of a staff Hudson pitches for
3:09
: it hurts me what number of instances I used to be like ‘oh hey possibly!’
3:09
: the reply is at all times no on the finish of the day
3:10
: he’ll stroll 6 in a row and also you’ll be cured of your blindness
3:10
: Deep down in my twisted thoughts I hope for a 5 staff battle in a few divisions. In 1967 the AL entered the final week of the season with 4 groups inside a recreation of one another. The White Sox had the lead then misplaced their final 5 and completed 4th.
3:10
: It could be actually superb, and I feel that the NLC is one of the best likelihood for that shortly
3:10
: The Pirates and Reds each placing it collectively concurrently, and having that occur to sync up with the Cubs being in an upswing? It appears too good to be true
3:10
: Man, Imanaga is gonna be good when it’s chilly out
3:11
: if nothing is getting out of Wrigley, how do you rating on him?
3:11
: That is smart. I assume that issues like ACL tears and damaged bones attributable to HBP don’t have any correlation to future harm except they trigger problems that cut back efficiency on account of surgical procedure. As to the place fixed muscle pulls and tendon strains, the place there is no such thing as a surgical procedure, seems to be correlative for accidents from yr to yr. [As a runner with paper tendons I can confirm] I’m wondering if there’s knowledge on the yr to yr correlation between gentle tissue accidents and time missed from season to season
3:11
: Derek Rhoads does some great things on accidents, I’d comply with his stuff
3:12
: however i haven’t seen something on this particularly, no
3:12
: Supermassive black holes will take about 2×10^100 years to evaporated. 2^162 is 5.8*10^48
3:12
: proper…. however do you assume baseball goes to proceed for 10^48 years? Do you assume it’s going to proceed for 10^2 years? Have they got baseball in your quadrant, Morbo?
3:12
: As a man that didn’t actually watch a ton of NL baseball, I’ve to say that my first few video games of the Juan Soto expertise has been deeply gratifying. That man was hitting in entrance of Choose and appeared like twice the hitter that Choose was. The Yankees simply want to provide him no matter he asks for. Completely ludicrous expertise.
3:12
: Yeah I really feel like yearly or so I write an article titled some variation of “Juan Soto, your favourite hitter’s favourite hitter”
3:13
: it’s SO satisfying to look at him work
3:13
: he doesn’t at all times succeed, but it surely at all times seems like he’s up there with a plan
3:14
: What might repair Severino? Dropping velo is a part of life, however what causes a lower in extension? Is that primarily a operate of a pitcher’s stride or arm angle? thanks
3:14
: Extra stride than anything, which I feel is usually an indication that one thing will not be proper within the legs/core
3:14
: On April thirtieth the White Sox can have __ wins
3:14
: They may???
3:14
: You appear very assured
3:14
: I feel the AL East additionally has an opportunity as a result of the Crimson Sox are significantly better than the consensus thinks. I bear in mind 2021 and no one was anticipating something but they got here inside 2 video games of the WS.
3:15
: We take pleasure in Blernsball in Morbo’s quadrant! And baseball’s time stay is determined by if time journey is invented as a result of there might completely be The Baseball Recreation on the Finish of the Universe
3:15
: Can’t argue with that. that stated, I’ll guess on the warmth loss of life of the universe as a result of I’m positive it’s going to occur finally, whereas I’m much less positive {that a} staff will ever win all their video games
3:15
: Do you assume the Rays have a elementary downside with pitcher accidents? Honeywell, Patino, De Leon, McKay, McClanahan, Baz, Bradley, Glasnow are all former or high pitching prospects who had severe accidents both fully or partially derail their careers whereas within the Rays org. Or is that this simply regular pitcher attrition?
3:15
: I feel the Rays choose for guys who’re maybe a little bit extra harm susceptible
3:16
: It’s not clear to me that it has to do with the org a lot as the choice bias
3:16
: The attention-grabbing factor about Soto vs Choose is that Soto appears extra in management on the plate, however Choose is clearly the higher hitter and participant.. not likely positive how these issues are concurrently true however they’re.
3:16
: Nicely, that’s as a result of when Choose’s bat touches the ball, it evaporates. I’m undecided I agree with you, although
3:16
: The factor that at all times will get me about Soto is that his ground is simply comically excessive
3:16
: additionally he’s SO sturdy
3:17
: that issues loads, you recognize?
3:18
: Would you promote low on Arenado for Nimmo in case your present CF is Taveras and have Burger as 3B alternative?
3:18
: omg it is a stunning query to obtain
3:18
: however like, wow, I’d
3:18
: Arenado has at all times been a greater actual life participant than fantasy
3:18
: Meals Q: have you ever ever tried to make bagels? I’ve made them through the years they usually have been so-so. Then I simply added psyllium husk and whole recreation changer. By no means had a bagel apart from NYC.
3:19
: I haven’t however a buddy I used to be snowboarding with this weekend was telling me about his experiments making bagels
3:19
: I’m going to ask him about it
3:19
: Idk Danny Jansen breaking a bone in his hand has occurred yearly for like 4 years. At all times an outlier.
3:19
: The exception that proves the rule
3:19
: How has Mookie checked out shortstop thus far?
3:19
: I haven’t watched sufficient to have the ability to say for sure, to be trustworthy
3:20
: I needed to sacrifice some baseball watching to hit the slopes
3:20
: However I’ll have a greater really feel after watching some Giants Dodgers video games this week
3:20
: are you able to surmise why ryan fernandez hasn’t gotten an look but?
3:21
: As a result of the Playing cards are fearful he isn’t superb and don’t wish to mess with him by having him debut in opposition to the Dodgers
3:21
: Truthfully, although, I feel that it’s unhealthy bullpen administration
3:21
: you possibly can’t simply carry an empty roster spot like that in opposition to the Dodgers when you have got a starter on an enforced pitch depend and are lacking your ace
3:22
: discover a technique to give the man confidence, you possibly can’t say ‘our bullpen was extraordinarily innings constrained’ and likewise simply not use somebody in any respect
3:22
: as a cardinals fan and mlb.television subscriber, i can’t let you know how excited i used to be that fifty% of the early season was blacked out to me as a result of the mlb company has partnerships with different large firms. MLB is for the followers.
3:22
: I really make do-it-yourself bagels which can be superb. My secret is I exploit a brown malt extract from a brewing retailer. I exploit King Arthur bread flour and completely abuse my KitchenAid by having it kneed the dough for like 20 minutes straight.
3:23
: Poor KitchenAid
3:23
: Okay, everybody who’s nonetheless on this chat is fairly clearly a loyal FG reader and baseball fanatic, so I’ve a query for you guys
3:23
: Would you be curious about a semi-regular twitch/youtube stream the place I attempt to discover ways to code utilizing baseball issues?
3:24
: the concept can be that I begin with an attention-grabbing query after which spend an hour or two exploring it, maybe with laptop programming, maybe utilizing some generative AI to assist me arrange my ideas, maybe by asking readers, and so on.
3:24
: possibly deliver on visitors every so often
3:24
: I’ll ballot it, as a result of I’ve been excited about doing this
3:25
:
Would you watch me attempting to be taught computer systems utilizing baseball?
Sure (25.0% | 13 votes)
No (21.1% | 11 votes)
I’d watch one to see if it’s attention-grabbing (53.8% | 28 votes)
Complete Votes: 52
3:25
: Re: Choose and Soto. I feel I agree with the earlier query. I feel Choose has been extra productive as a hitter and fielder (whereas wholesome) than Soto, however Soto appears like he’s on one other degree whereas batting in comparison with Choose. Full management.
Since 2019, Choose has a 169 wRC+, 27.6 WAR in 2,367 PA, Soto has a 156 wRC+ and 25.2 WAR in 2,901 PA. WAR closeness comes right down to Choose being harm susceptible.
3:25
: Yeah. If Soto had Choose’s energy, that might be the right hitter I feel
3:26
: “Truthfully, although, I feel that it’s unhealthy bullpen administration” a Cardinals supervisor with unhealthy bullpen administration, colour me shocked! Beginning to assume it’s the FO and never the Supervisor at this level
3:26
: I feel it may be each
3:26
: I really assume that Marmol makes some good and exhausting bullpen selections
3:26
: he’s superb about understanding the reactions that opposing managers can have, and their knock-on results
3:27
: like he typically brings in a platoon-immune righty in opposition to a pocket of righties the place the opposing supervisor will PH
3:27
: in order that he can then use his lefty in opposition to the pocket he created
3:27
: I’d watch that! Would there be a technique to comply with alongside at house? As a result of I’ve been that means to be taught some python or comparable. I realized some java and primary again within the day
3:27
: Yeah the concept is for folks to comply with alongside at house
3:27
: I don’t assume it’d be attention-grabbing if it’s simply me speaking to myself so I’d attempt to have a knowledge set we are able to all use collectively, that kinda factor
3:27
: I assumed Caminero was damage?
3:28
: He’s, however I feel he’ll be up not lengthy after he will get wholesome
3:28
: Any thought if I can nonetheless give the staff that will or is probably not manipulating my service time the draft choose promo if I win/get 2nd in ROY and am on the staff within the subsequent week or so? Most reporting says I’ve to be on the Opening Day roster — however some say it’s extra versatile (https://theathletic.com/3187914/2022/03/16/mlbs-collective-bargaining-…). And when is that day specfically… tick tock @mike elias!
3:28
: I do have an actual reply for you, really. He must accrue a full yr’s service time, which isn’t the identical as being on the opening day roster
3:28
: I feel it’s 170 days
3:30
: In order that’s… April 10?
3:30
: Are you involved about Michael King? Or only a bizarre early season begin?
3:30
: I’m as involved as I used to be earlier than the beginning, which is to say, eh, a little bit
3:30
: He’s undoubtedly projected higher than my view of him is, I nonetheless really feel like he’s dangerous
3:31
: however I haven’t modified that view based mostly on one begin
3:31
: Michael King was a bit susceptible to strolling suits like this. I’ve seen principally each Michael King inning up till this yr and his stuff strikes a lot that he typically has bother harnessing it..
3:31
: Have been you shocked that the Cardinals prolonged Marmol? He piloted the staff to its worst season since I can’t bear in mind when and appeared to have issues dealing with the clubhouse.
3:31
: The clubhouse factor is why I used to be shocked
3:32
: however yeah, I used to be
3:32
: How mad are cubs followers going to be when Imanaga is pulled with an ideal recreation after 6?
3:32
: oh, so so so mad
3:32
: Chourio/Keith should not eligible for the ROY compensation choose as a result of they signed their contract previous to their MLB debuts. Is MLB simply making this up as they go? Did the golf equipment know this?
3:32
: I’m optimistic that the groups knew it. And I feel it is smart that means, to be trustworthy. The picks are an incentive for groups to advertise prospects who would in any other case have their compensation affected
3:33
: Alright, I’m gonna name it a day and get again to watching as a lot baseball as humanly attainable
3:33
: Please don’t problem me on this
3:34
: Have an incredible week, everybody, and benefit from the season, I’ve been having a blast thus far
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
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