A Whole Team Out of Shortstops? The Padres Are Trying

With a brand new baseball season comes a recent set of field scores to choose aside each day, however the ink on the primary one wasn’t even dry, so to talk, when it lodged itself in my mind at an ungodly early hour on March 20 and caught there like a flashing neon signal: EIGHT SHORTSTOPS! On Opening Day in Seoul towards the Dodgers, the Padres fielded a lineup that aside from its battery of Yu Darvish and Luis Campusano was fully made up of shortstops previous and current; in contrast the Dodgers had resorted to putting six-time Gold Glove-winning proper fielder Mookie Betts at quick to accommodate their very own uneven roster. To this baseball-addled thoughts, it felt like a collision of 4 a long time price of studying about scouting philosophies and sabermetrics, from Greenback Signal on the Muscle and Future Worth by way of Invoice James’ defensive spectrum and the fundamental development of WAR, with its positional changes. It took a outstanding confluence of circumstances to reach at this association, which to be truthful was by no means supposed to be everlasting, although supervisor Mike Shildt has used that very same lineup extra typically than every other since then.

Shortstops are typically among the most gifted and athletic gamers on the diamond. As Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel put it in Future Worth, the necessities for the place embrace “an above-average arm, plus pace/vary, plus footwork, and common palms/motion.” A really excessive share of right-handed gamers had been shortstops sooner or later as amateurs; certainly, taking part in the place at that stage is “a robust indication of a participant’s all-around athleticism,” as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote final month when noting the Padres’ growing stockpile. Most of these novice shortstops migrate throughout the defensive spectrum to much less demanding positions as their our bodies develop and so they progress by way of the minors and into the majors, with the event of their offensive abilities serving to to find out the place they could discover properties. As James noticed way back, the harder the defensive place, the decrease the bar for offensive manufacturing.

Right here’s the lineup in query:

That’s a set of components that don’t but appear like they make up an entire. The lineup exhibits the contours of the boom-and-bust cycle weathered by common supervisor A.J. Preller, who has dedicated practically $1 billion to Machado (11 years, $350 million after the six-time All-Star opted out of his authentic 10-year, $300 million deal), Tatis (14 years, $340 million), and Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) alone. Whereas the Padres reached the NLCS in 2022 after knocking off each the 101-win Mets and 111-win Dodgers, Preller’s imaginative and prescient hasn’t translated into full-blown success; after profitable simply 82 video games with a membership file $255 million payroll ($280 million for tax functions) in 2023, he’s been pressured to retool — most notably by dealing away late-’22 acquisition Juan Soto — and could also be nearing the top of his rope.

Lengthy story quick, Preller invested an entire lot of cash whereas packing the Padres’ roster not simply with stars, however with stars of a sure kind (most of them according to the development towards more and more massive however athletic males taking part in the place), then shifting them round as they started to crowd one another. With the group now stretched skinny, he’s filling within the gaps with light-hitting utilitymen and an fascinating experiment. It’s price a have a look at how the Padres received thus far.

The Fringe Guys

Possible probably the most transient member of this lineup is Wade. A former Yankees prospect, he grazed the Baseball Prospectus Prime 101 Prospects record at no. 101 in 2017, following a .259/.352/.349 season at Double-A Trenton after which a stint within the Arizona Fall League studying to play the outfield. Vice chairman of participant growth Gary Denbo and others within the group envisioned Wade because the Yankees’ reply to superutilitymen Ben Zobrist and Brock Holt, however his full lack of energy and failure to make constant contact prevented him from realizing that lofty purpose. Seven years and 4 DFAs later, the 29-year-old lefty swinger is the proprietor of a profession .220/.297/.302 (68 wRC+) batting line with a 1.7% barrel fee and 24.7% strikeout fee in 726 plate appearances. Signed to a minor league deal in November after getting simply 55 PA with the 112-loss A’s final 12 months, Wade has began 5 of the Padres’ 9 video games at third base rather than Machado, who’s nonetheless recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his proper extensor tendon in his elbow. Of the 4 video games Wade hasn’t began, two apiece have been began by 24-year-old righty rookie Eguy Rosario (who has pinch-hit for Wade 3 times and who himself has performed 130 minor league video games at shortstop) and 23-year-old lefty-swinging third base prospect Graham Pauley, who completed final season with 20 video games at Double-A, however whose infield protection was described as “at present untenable.”

Additionally on the perimeter is Profar, who goes additional again with Preller than every other Padre, having been signed out of Curaçao by the Rangers on July 2, 2009, when Preller was the group’s director {of professional} and worldwide scouting. By 2013, the 20-year-old Profar was the sport’s high prospect, however with a trio of All-Stars — Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Adrián Beltré — blocking his path to common taking part in time within the Texas infield, he was restricted to utility obligation as a rookie. His trajectory shifted as soon as he misplaced practically two full years to proper shoulder accidents, first a torn teres main that value him all of 2014, then a torn labrum that required surgical procedure and restricted him to a rehab stint in late ’15. He’s tasted solely intermittent success since, ending with least a 100 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR simply 3 times within the final seven years whereas roughly taking part in himself out of the infield; in 2022–23, he logged one inning at second base and 151.1 at first.

After hitting 15 homers with a 111 wRC+ and a career-high 2.5 WAR in 2022, Profar opted out of the ultimate 12 months of his three-year, $21 million take care of the Padres, then went unsigned into mid-March ’23 earlier than catching on with the Rockies. His season was such a catastrophe that the group launched him in late August, and whereas he loved a little bit of September success upon being picked up by San Diego, he completed with a 76 wRC+ and -2.0 WAR. But he’s again on a one-year, $1 million-plus-incentives deal, beginning in left area due to the group’s lack of outfield depth.

The Cornerstone

As for the opposite six (former) shortstops, they’ve principally been shoehorned into the lineup by no matter means essential in a course of that dates again to 2019, when the group signed Machado to a 10-year, $300 million take care of the intention of returning him to 3rd base after he had spent many of the earlier season at shortstop for the one time in his main league profession.

When the Orioles drafted Machado out of a Miami highschool with the third decide in 2010, he had already performed shortstop for the legendary 2009 under-18 U.S. nationwide group that received a gold medal on the Pan American Junior Championships. Machado performed nearly solely at shortstop in his three minor league seasons (the primary of which was solely 5 video games lengthy). By the spring of 2012, the 19-year-old phenom was the no. 11 prospect within the sport in response to Baseball America, drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez but in addition issues that he may bodily outgrow the place. In the meantime, the Orioles already had a shortstop they had been fairly happy with in 29-year-old J.J. Hardy, who was coming off a 30-homer, 4.5 WAR season and who had just lately signed a three-year, $22.5 million extension. Machado started that season at Double-A Bowie, however when the Orioles, who had gone 69-93 in 2011 — their 14th consecutive shedding season — discovered themselves in competition, they known as up Machado in early August and caught him at third base, the place he had simply two video games {of professional} expertise. He shortly proved to be a spectacular defender, a significant improve over incumbent Wilson Betemit, who was quickly misplaced to a wrist damage anyway. The Orioles received 93 video games and claimed a Wild Card spot in 2012, and the Machado-Hardy left facet remained in place by way of two extra playoff appearances over the following 4 years earlier than the latter’s physique broke down.

Throughout Hardy’s injury-related absences in 2015–16, Machado crammed in at shortstop, taking part in a complete of 52 video games there. After Hardy retired following the 2017 season, Machado returned to his outdated place, first with the Orioles, who had been amid a tear-down section, after which with the Dodgers, who traded for him on July 18, 2018. Although he produced 7.0 WAR in his stroll 12 months, Machado’s metrics at shortstop weren’t nice (-10 DRS, -6.5 UZR, 1 RAA), and by the point he signed with San Diego in February 2019, the 20-year-old Tatis was on the cusp of the majors, able to make the bounce from Double-A. Again at third, Machado has made two All-Star groups and had two top-three finishes within the MVP voting whereas rising as a group chief — a lot in order that the Padres lavished a brand new extension on him after he opted out of his authentic deal on the finish of the 2022 season. As for when he’ll return to the sector — thereby trimming the shortstop whole all the way down to an affordable (?) seven, with Machado changing Wade at third and a greater hitter than Wade beginning at DH — the timeline is tentative at greatest, “probably by the top of April.”

The Prodigy

Whereas Machado didn’t have a fantastic first 12 months with the Padres in 2019, Tatis was a revelation on the offensive facet, hitting .317/.379/.590 (151 wRC+) in 84 video games earlier than a stress response in his decrease again ended his season in mid-August. His defensive metrics had been one other story, within the pink throughout the board (-3 DRS, -5.8 UZR, -12 RAA); whereas Machado’s had been considerably higher throughout a 37-game stint at shortstop when Tatis missed practically six weeks as a result of a hamstring pressure, the Padres opted to revive their earlier configuration through the shortened 2020 season. Each gamers carried out nicely; Tatis’ defensive numbers even improved throughout the small pattern, and the group went 37-23, making the playoffs for the primary time in 14 years, albeit through an expanded area.

With the infield getting more and more crowded as a result of arrivals of Cronenworth (in a December 2019 commerce with the Rays together with Tommy Pham) and Kim (from the KBO within the winter of 2020–21), the Padres inked Tatis to an enormous extension within the spring of 2021, then experimented with him in heart and proper area whereas he was within the midst of a monster 42-homer, 158 wRC+ season that once more included largely under common defensive metrics at shortstop (-7.5 UZR, -6 DRS, 2 RAA). The plan to go ahead with him as an outfielder in 2022 was interrupted by Tatis’ misadventures, first a fracture in his left wrist that required surgical procedure and should have occurred throughout one of many a number of motorbike accidents he was concerned in whereas within the Dominican Republic that offseason, after which an 80-game PED suspension that landed whereas he was on a rehab project. When he lastly returned final 12 months, it was with no consideration fielder, and whereas his offense wasn’t as much as his traditional stage, his protection was elite. He led all proper fielders along with his 29 DRS, 13.8 UZR, and 10 RAA, taking dwelling not solely a Gold Glove however the NL Platinum Glove.

The Swiss Military Knife

Drafted as a second baseman out of the College of Michigan — the place he pitched and performed first, second, third, and left area however not shortstop — in 2015, Cronenworth spent many of the subsequent 4 seasons taking part in quick within the Rays’ group, albeit with wholesome servings of second base and third base. He even pitched in seven video games at Durham in 2019, and might need continued to take action if not for MLB’s dumb rule modifications, which included one which set a 20-inning bar for somebody to be thought of a two-way participant; in any other case, he may solely enter when his group was profitable or shedding by greater than six runs.

As a rookie in 2020 he hit a sturdy .285/.354/.477 (126 wRC+) whereas taking part in primarily at second base, however he began at shortstop within the three video games Tatis didn’t, and served as a late-inning substitute in eight others. Throughout Tatis’ preliminary outfield foray, it was Cronenworth who took over at shortstop, beginning 31 of 34 video games and performing proper round common in response to the metrics.

He held the second base job in 2022, and was a Gold Glove finalist whereas hitting for a 110 wRC+ with 4.2 WAR, however the arrival of Bogaerts the next winter pushed him to first base, a place the place the Padres had lengthy struggled for offensive manufacturing as a result of their misguided perception in Eric Hosmer, who netted 0.4 WAR in 4 and a half seasons earlier than being traded. Sadly, Cronenworth’s offense has declined because the transfer, placing the Padres at a deficit offensively; he slipped to a 92 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR final 12 months.

The (Kiwoom) Hero

The infield received much more crowded in 2021 with the arrival of Kim, who had starred as a shortstop for the Nexen (later Kiwoom) Heroes within the KBO. When he first got here stateside through a four-year, $28 million deal, he scuffled on the plate, hitting .202/.270/.352 (71 wRC+) whereas backing up at second, quick, and third. He crammed in for Tatis throughout a COVID-related IL stint in Could, however was primarily consigned to pinch-hitting obligation throughout Tatis’ outfield experiment.

As soon as the Padres dedicated to creating Tatis an outfielder, it was Kim they selected to play shortstop for 2022. He rewarded their religion by doing standout work (10 DRS, 4.9 UZR, 4 RAA), turning into a Gold Glove finalist whereas enhancing to a 106 wRC+. He accommodated the group by shifting to second base with the arrival of Bogaerts in 2023, profitable a Gold Glove whereas hitting 17 homers with a 112 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR. In February, the Padres determined they might be higher with the smaller, rangier Kim at shortstop and Bogaerts at second, a transfer that not solely is sensible on paper however appears geared to conserving Kim round previous his present deal (he has an $8 million mutual choice for 2025).

The Interloper

Signed out of Aruba simply shy of his seventeenth birthday in 2009, Bogaerts performed solely at shortstop till he reached Triple-A 4 years later. Following a fast initiation at Pawtucket, the Crimson Sox squeezed the 20-year-old prospect into their lineup as a 3rd baseman alongside shortstop Stephen Drew, and received the World Collection with that mixture. When Drew opted out, Bogaerts started the 2014 season at shortstop; he shifted again to 3rd when Drew belatedly re-signed, however when the veteran didn’t hit a lick, the Crimson Sox foisted him on the Yankees in a July 31 commerce and reinstalled the rookie at quick. Over the following eight seasons he emerged as one in all baseball’s greatest shortstops, hitting for a 125 wRC+ with 34.0 WAR (second on the place) from 2015–22 and signing a six-year, $120 million extension in ’19. Even so, he accrued -50 DRS and -25 RAA in that span.

Bogaerts exercised an opt-out in his contract after 2022 and signed a large take care of the Padres with the understanding {that a} place change may occur down the street. He was stable defensively in his first season in San Diego (-4 DRS, 2 RAA, 0 UZR) whereas hitting for a 120 wRC+, however throughout spring coaching, the Padres satisfied him to swap locations with Kim. “I signed right here as a shortstop,” Bogaerts mentioned in late February. “However to me, I simply reside and die baseball… I’m simply doing it in the very best pursuits of the group, and in the long run, I really feel like I’m at peace with shifting off.”

The Newest Experiment

Given the flimsiness of their outfield and the logjam within the infield, the Padres determined late final 12 months to attempt Merrill, their 2021 first-round decide, within the outfield; as Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote after they positioned him thirtieth on this 12 months’s Prime 100 Prospects record, his below-average palms counsel that he’ll completely transfer off shortstop finally. Merrill performed 5 video games in left area at Double-A San Antonio, and the Padres ready him for the probability of continuous down that path. They tried Merrill in each left and heart area this spring, and the 20-year-old (whose birthday is April 19) impressed them sufficient to open the season on the latter spot. Up to now, he’s hit a decent .240/.321/.440 whereas beginning seven of 9 video games there and brought over after pinch-hitting for the light-hitting José Azocar within the different two. If Kim leaves after this season, Merrill might be again within the shortstop combine, however for now, that is how the Padres are rolling.

Will all of it work? The early returns are combined, because the Padres are simply 4-5. Their offense has been strong, scoring 5.78 runs per sport (sixth within the NL), however their shaky pitching has allowed a good six runs per sport (tenth). It’s far too early to get a learn on defensive metrics, however for now we’ll notice that the group’s .651 defensive effectivity is eleventh, 24 factors under the league common. Keep tuned.